The short version
A prediction market turns a question about the future into something you can take a position on. Each market asks one question with clearly defined outcomes. You use tokens to back the outcome you believe in. When the event happens, the market is settled against the real-world result and the pool is shared between everyone who backed the correct outcome.
You are not buying an asset and you are not borrowing to amplify a position. What you commit is the token amount you choose, and that amount is the most you can lose on that market.
Step by step
- Pick a market. Markets are grouped into categories such as Trading, Markets, Politics, Sports, Crypto and Esports.
- Read the question and the resolution terms. These define exactly what has to happen for each outcome to be judged correct.
- Choose an outcome and the number of tokens you want to commit.
- Confirm. Your position appears under My Predictions, and your token balance updates in your Wallet.
- Wait for the market to lock, then for it to be settled once the result is known.
How the pool decides your share
Every token committed to a market goes into a shared pool. Nothing is priced against a counterparty and there is no order book — your eventual share depends on two things: how much you committed, and how much of the pool ended up on the outcome that turned out to be correct.
The practical consequence is that backing an outcome that few others expect is worth proportionally more if it lands, and backing the widely expected outcome is worth proportionally less. The odds shown on a market reflect how the pool is currently distributed, so they move as other people take positions.
The life of a market
- Open — the market accepts new positions and the odds move as the pool changes.
- Locked — no new positions are accepted. This normally happens as the event begins, so nobody can act on a result that is already becoming clear.
- Resolved — the outcome has been confirmed and the pool has been shared out to the correct side.
- Cancelled — the market could not be settled fairly, and committed tokens are returned.
Tokens and your wallet
Positions are taken with tokens held in your RallyPredict wallet. You can top up your token balance, move funds between your wallet and your trading platform balance, and review every movement in your transaction log. Settled winnings arrive back in the same wallet.
Reading a market before you commit
The resolution terms matter more than the headline. They state the source that will be used to judge the outcome, the cut-off moment, and what happens in edge cases such as a postponed event or an ambiguous result. If a question could be read two ways, the resolution terms are what settles it.
Keep it deliberate
Prediction markets involve risk and are not a source of income. Only commit tokens you can afford to lose, decide your limits before you start rather than while a market is running, and take a break when a decision starts to feel like chasing a loss. Our responsible participation page explains the tools available and where to find support.